BITCOIN IS RISING, BUT LEVERAGE IS STILL BETTING AGAINST IT

Some markets rise with enthusiasm, while others rise with discomfort. Bitcoin, right now, clearly belongs to the latter category. The price is going up, flows are returning, the structure is slowly recovering, but conviction isn't fully there yet. There's no widespread, assumed, almost insolent euphoria. Instead, there's a market that's pushing forward, gritting its teeth, while some of its players continue to bet against it or, at the very least, still refuse to fully trust it. This is precisely what makes the current moment interesting.

At first glance, the facts may seem bullish. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded eight consecutive days of inflows, totaling approximately $2.10 billion as of April 23, according to figures reported by CoinDesk from SoSoValue. At the same time, the price has continued to hold in a high range, while the market once again attempted to digest its recent peaks.

But beneath this cleaner surface, something else is happening. CoinDesk also notes that short-term holders are discreetly starting to sell again, which means that the return of flows isn't creating uniform adoption. Some are accumulating, others are divesting. Some see a market taking off, others are using the rebound to exit or reduce their exposure. So, it's not a united market. It's a fractured market.

And this fracture is even more visible on the leverage side. Bitcoin recently stalled below the $77,500 to $80,000 area, while open interest in futures fell by more than 6% in 24 hours, a sign of deleveraging and tactical clearing rather than a simple euphoric pursuit. Volatility has also cooled. This is not the behavior of a market exploding with full confidence. It's the behavior of a market that's rising while some operators are taking their fingers off the button.

This is where the moment becomes revealing. In a true frenzy, everyone wants the same thing at the same time. Spot rises, leverage piles up, narratives become aggressive, prices break violently, and people start talking as if the future is already written. Here, it's not exactly that. Spot receives inflows. The price holds. But leverage doesn't follow with the same assurance. It retreats, it cleans up, it remains nervous. Clearly, the spot market is starting to say one thing while the derivatives market continues to whisper the opposite.

This divergence is not a minor detail. It suggests that the price can rise without full conviction following suit. It suggests that part of the market structure is not ready to frankly embrace the bullish scenario. It also suggests that many still view this rebound as a tactical opportunity, not a fundamental shift. And that's precisely why the sequence deserves to be taken seriously. When an asset rises despite imperfect conviction, it may be doing something more solid than a simple burst of euphoria.

CoinDesk recently added that Bitcoin's Bull Score Index had moved out of the bear zone and returned to neutral, around 50. The site specified that this was not yet validation of a new bullish regime. But it's not nothing either. It means that we are no longer in the old simple pattern where every signal pointed to a pure and hard bear market. The ground is shifting, but it's shifting without triumph.

And perhaps that's the real issue. Bitcoin is no longer in a market where everyone doubts it for the same reasons as before. Doubt hasn't disappeared, but it has shifted. It's less about its survival than about how to interpret it. Is it still just a rebound in a fragile structure? Is it already a market changing phase? Is it just short-term ETF flows absorbed by opportunistic sales? Or is it the more disturbing sign that Bitcoin can now hold high without needing euphoric consensus to continue moving forward?

The derivatives market, for its part, seems to respond cautiously. It doesn't want to be the first to believe. It prefers to wait, clean up, reduce aggressive exposure, let spot do the dirty work of conviction. This is a classic attitude in periods where something is changing without yet being officially admitted. Leverage doesn't like ambiguous transitions. It likes clean narratives, clear impulses, easy certainties. When it remains wary while the price holds, it often reveals less a weakness in price than a discomfort in interpretation.

In other words, Bitcoin is rising, but part of the market continues to behave as if this rise is not yet worthy of real trust. It's almost ironic. Spot says money is coming in. ETFs say absorption continues. Price says the structure holds. And yet, leverage is not yet willing to sign on the dotted line.

One should also be wary of overly optimistic readings. This caution from derivatives could also mean that a part of the market considers the current zone vulnerable, too high to buy aggressively, too crowded to break easily, too dependent on a still young flow to immediately become obvious. This is not absurd. But even in this case, the situation remains interesting. Because if Bitcoin holds or rallies despite this distrust, then it won't be just another rise. It will be a rise achieved without the full and complete help of the most aggressive speculation. And that, structurally, is often worth more than a rally fueled solely by leverage.

This is why the moment deserves an article. Not because "BTC is rising," an empty phrase good for caffeinated X accounts. But because a deeper tension is emerging: the price is advancing while faith remains shaky. It is often in this type of disagreement between flows and conviction that the most important sequences are formed. Markets don't like to immediately acknowledge that they have changed regimes. They prefer to continue doubting until doubt becomes costly.

So Bitcoin is rising. But leverage is still betting against it, or at least still refusing to bet frankly with it. And in this gap between money coming in and conviction lagging, there may be the most interesting signal of the moment. Not an euphoric market. Not a properly bullish market. Something more subtle, and often more dangerous for skeptics: a market that advances while some of its players still don't dare to believe.

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